A Quantitative Model for Technological Risk Assessment in the Process of Information Technology Transfer

Most technology transfer to developing countries has failed to deliver the expected results within the timescales and budgets predicted. Research has consistently shown that this is due to the inadequacy of local evaluation procedures applied and to a lack of understanding about the factors that influence the successful outcome of these systems in different socio-cultural and political environments. This paper develops a new model for the evaluation of technological risk which enables the integration of a rigorous process for the capture of quantitative/qualitative data with a newly devised subjective technique, Subjective Estimated Effect Technique (SEET). In this paper it will be shown how this new model can address the dynamic aspects of the evaluation of risk in the management of human, social, organisational, technological, and cultural issues that impact the success of any Information Technology (IT) transfer.